Search for: All records

Abstract We present a novel deep generative model, named GenMDI, to improve the temporal resolution of line-of-sight (LOS) magnetograms of solar active regions (ARs) collected by the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. Unlike previous studies that focus primarily on spatial super-resolution of MDI magnetograms, our approach can perform temporal super-resolution, which generates and inserts synthetic data between observed MDI magnetograms, thus providing finer temporal structure and enhanced details in the LOS data. The GenMDI model employs a conditional diffusion process, which synthesizes images by considering both preceding and subsequent magnetograms, ensuring that the generated images are not only of high quality but also temporally coherent with the surrounding data. Experimental results show that the GenMDI model performs better than the traditional linear interpolation method, especially in ARs with dynamic evolution in magnetic fields. 

Abstract We propose a novel deep learning framework, named SYMHnet, which employs a graph neural network and a bidirectional long short‐term memory network to cooperatively learn patterns from solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters for short‐term forecasts of the SYM‐H index based on 1‐ and 5‐min resolution data. SYMHnet takes, as input, the time series of the parameters' values provided by NASA's Space Science Data Coordinated Archive and predicts, as output, the SYM‐H index value at time pointt + whours for a given time pointtwherewis 1 or 2. By incorporating Bayesian inference into the learning framework, SYMHnet can quantify both aleatoric (data) uncertainty and epistemic (model) uncertainty when predicting future SYM‐H indices. Experimental results show that SYMHnet works well at quiet time and storm time, for both 1‐ and 5‐min resolution data. The results also show that SYMHnet generally performs better than related machine learning methods. For example, SYMHnet achieves a forecast skill score (FSS) of 0.343 compared to the FSS of 0.074 of a recent gradient boosting machine (GBM) method when predicting SYM‐H indices (1 hr in advance) in a large storm (SYM‐H = −393 nT) using 5‐min resolution data. When predicting the SYM‐H indices (2 hr in advance) in the large storm, SYMHnet achieves an FSS of 0.553 compared to the FSS of 0.087 of the GBM method. In addition, SYMHnet can provide results for both data and model uncertainty quantification, whereas the related methods cannot. 

Abstract Solar flares are explosions on the Sun. They happen when energy stored in magnetic fields around solar active regions (ARs) is suddenly released. Solar flares and accompanied coronal mass ejections are sources of space weather, which negatively affects a variety of technologies at or near Earth, ranging from blocking high-frequency radio waves used for radio communication to degrading power grid operations. Monitoring and providing early and accurate prediction of solar flares is therefore crucial for preparedness and disaster risk management. In this article, we present a transformer-based framework, named SolarFlareNet, for predicting whether an AR would produce a$$\gamma$$ $\gamma$-class flare within the next 24 to 72 h. We consider three$$\gamma$$ $\gamma$classes, namely the$$\ge$$ $\ge$M5.0 class, the$$\ge$$ $\ge$M class and the$$\ge$$ $\ge$C class, and build three transformers separately, each corresponding to a$$\gamma$$ $\gamma$class. Each transformer is used to make predictions of its corresponding$$\gamma$$ $\gamma$-class flares. The crux of our approach is to model data samples in an AR as time series and to use transformers to capture the temporal dynamics of the data samples. Each data sample consists of magnetic parameters taken from Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP) and related data products. We survey flare events that occurred from May 2010 to December 2022 using the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite X-ray flare catalogs provided by the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), and build a database of flares with identified ARs in the NCEI flare catalogs. This flare database is used to construct labels of the data samples suitable for machine learning. We further extend the deterministic approach to a calibration-based probabilistic forecasting method. The SolarFlareNet system is fully operational and is capable of making near real-time predictions of solar flares on the Web. 

Abstract Interplanetary magnetic flux ropes (MFRs) are commonly observed structures in the solar wind, categorized as magnetic clouds (MCs) and small-scale MFRs (SMFRs) depending on whether they are associated with coronal mass ejections. We apply machine learning to systematically compare SMFRs, MCs, and ambient solar wind plasma properties. We construct a data set of 3-minute averaged sequential data points of the solar wind’s instantaneous bulk fluid plasma properties using about 20 years of measurements from Wind. We label samples by the presence and type of MFRs containing them using a catalog based on Grad–Shafranov (GS) automated detection for SMFRs and NASA's catalog for MCs (with samples in neither labeled non-MFRs). We apply the random forest machine learning algorithm to find which categories can be more easily distinguished and by what features. MCs were distinguished from non-MFRs with an area under the receiver-operator curve (AUC) of 94% and SMFRs with an AUC of 89%, and had distinctive plasma properties. In contrast, while SMFRs were distinguished from non-MFRs with an AUC of 86%, this appears to rely solely on the 〈B〉 > 5 nT threshold applied by the GS catalog. The results indicate that SMFRs have virtually the same plasma properties as the ambient solar wind, unlike the distinct plasma regimes of MCs. We interpret our findings as additional evidence that most SMFRs at 1 au are generated within the solar wind. We also suggest that they should be considered a salient feature of the solar wind’s magnetic structure rather than transient events. 

Abstract Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are massive solar eruptions, which have a significant impact on Earth. In this paper, we propose a new method, called DeepCME, to estimate two properties of CMEs, namely, CME mass and kinetic energy. Being able to estimate these properties helps better understand CME dynamics. Our study is based on the CME catalog maintained at the Coordinated Data Analysis Workshops Data Center, which contains all CMEs manually identified since 1996 using the Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (LASCO) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory. We use LASCO C2 data in the period between 1996 January and 2020 December to train, validate, and test DeepCME through 10-fold cross validation. The DeepCME method is a fusion of three deep-learning models, namely ResNet, InceptionNet, and InceptionResNet. Our fusion model extracts features from LASCO C2 images, effectively combining the learning capabilities of the three component models to jointly estimate the mass and kinetic energy of CMEs. Experimental results show that the fusion model yields a mean relative error (MRE) of 0.013 (0.009, respectively) compared to the MRE of 0.019 (0.017, respectively) of the best component model InceptionResNet (InceptionNet, respectively) in estimating the CME mass (kinetic energy, respectively). To our knowledge, this is the first time that deep learning has been used for CME mass and kinetic energy estimations. 

The Sun constantly releases radiation and plasma into the heliosphere. Sporadically, the Sun launches solar eruptions such as flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). CMEs carry away a huge amount of mass and magnetic flux with them. An Earth-directed CME can cause serious consequences to the human system. It can destroy power grids/pipelines, satellites, and communications. Therefore, accurately monitoring and predicting CMEs is important to minimize damages to the human system. In this study we propose an ensemble learning approach, named CMETNet, for predicting the arrival time of CMEs from the Sun to the Earth. We collect and integrate eruptive events from two solar cycles, #23 and #24, from 1996 to 2021 with a total of 363 geoeffective CMEs. The data used for making predictions include CME features, solar wind parameters and CME images obtained from the SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph. Our ensemble learning framework comprises regression algorithms for numerical data analysis and a convolutional neural network for image processing. Experimental results show that CMETNet performs better than existing machine learning methods reported in the literature, with a Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient of 0.83 and a mean absolute error of 9.75 h. 

Abstract Obtaining high-quality magnetic and velocity fields through Stokes inversion is crucial in solar physics. In this paper, we present a new deep learning method, named Stacked Deep Neural Networks (SDNN), for inferring line-of-sight (LOS) velocities and Doppler widths from Stokes profiles collected by the Near InfraRed Imaging Spectropolarimeter (NIRIS) on the 1.6 m Goode Solar Telescope (GST) at the Big Bear Solar Observatory (BBSO). The training data for SDNN are prepared by a Milne–Eddington (ME) inversion code used by BBSO. We quantitatively assess SDNN, comparing its inversion results with those obtained by the ME inversion code and related machine-learning (ML) algorithms such as multiple support vector regression, multilayer perceptrons, and a pixel-level convolutional neural network. Major findings from our experimental study are summarized as follows. First, the SDNN-inferred LOS velocities are highly correlated to the ME-calculated ones with the Pearson product–moment correlation coefficient being close to 0.9 on average. Second, SDNN is faster, while producing smoother and cleaner LOS velocity and Doppler width maps, than the ME inversion code. Third, the maps produced by SDNN are closer to ME’s maps than those from the related ML algorithms, demonstrating that the learning capability of SDNN is better than those of the ML algorithms. Finally, a comparison between the inversion results of ME and SDNN based on GST/NIRIS and those from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory in flare-prolific active region NOAA 12673 is presented. We also discuss extensions of SDNN for inferring vector magnetic fields with empirical evaluation. 

Abstract Solar flares, especially the M- and X-class flares, are often associated with coronal mass ejections. They are the most important sources of space weather effects, which can severely impact the near-Earth environment. Thus it is essential to forecast flares (especially the M- and X-class ones) to mitigate their destructive and hazardous consequences. Here, we introduce several statistical and machine-learning approaches to the prediction of an active region’s (AR) flare index (FI) that quantifies the flare productivity of an AR by taking into account the number of different class flares within a certain time interval. Specifically, our sample includes 563 ARs that appeared on the solar disk from 2010 May to 2017 December. The 25 magnetic parameters, provided by the Space-weather HMI Active Region Patches (SHARP) from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory, characterize coronal magnetic energy stored in ARs by proxy and are used as the predictors. We investigate the relationship between these SHARP parameters and the FI of ARs with a machine-learning algorithm (spline regression) and the resampling method (Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique for Regression with Gaussian Noise). Based on the established relationship, we are able to predict the value of FIs for a given AR within the next 1 day period. Compared with other four popular machine-learning algorithms, our methods improve the accuracy of FI prediction, especially for a large FI. In addition, we sort the importance of SHARP parameters by the Borda count method calculated from the ranks that are rendered by nine different machine-learning methods. 

Abstract Solar energetic particles (SEPs) are an essential source of space radiation, and are hazardous for humans in space, spacecraft, and technology in general. In this paper, we propose a deep-learning method, specifically a bidirectional long short-term memory (biLSTM) network, to predict if an active region (AR) would produce an SEP event given that (i) the AR will produce an M- or X-class flare and a coronal mass ejection (CME) associated with the flare, or (ii) the AR will produce an M- or X-class flare regardless of whether or not the flare is associated with a CME. The data samples used in this study are collected from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite's X-ray flare catalogs provided by the National Centers for Environmental Information. We select M- and X-class flares with identified ARs in the catalogs for the period between 2010 and 2021, and find the associations of flares, CMEs, and SEPs in the Space Weather Database of Notifications, Knowledge, Information during the same period. Each data sample contains physical parameters collected from the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager on board the Solar Dynamics Observatory. Experimental results based on different performance metrics demonstrate that the proposed biLSTM network is better than related machine-learning algorithms for the two SEP prediction tasks studied here. We also discuss extensions of our approach for probabilistic forecasting and calibration with empirical evaluation.